Obama’s National Lead Based Entirely on Over-Sampling Democrats

September 17, 2012

Note: This story has been updated.

Ever since the arguably skewed CNN poll of a few weeks back, conservative voters have been looking at the methodology of polling companies with an increasing amount of skepticism. The fact that most polls have used a model that tries to mimic the voter turnout in 2008, when Democrats beat Republican turnout by 7 points (as opposed to presidential elections like 2004, where turnout between the two parties was relatively even), has not improved this state of affairs.

And now, the suspicion of poll bias appears to have yet one more piece of evidence to support it. Via a tweet by anonymous poll analyst NumbersCruncher comes the following graph showing the degree of oversampling of Democrats employed by the most recent polls (all of which show Obama leading Romney):

Blogger keithbacker at Battleground Watch sums up the graph this way:

The real take-away which I have mentioned the times I blog national polls is that many of those national polls are HORRIBLE for Obama, namely the ABC/Washington Post and CBS/New York Times polls where you have large Democrat over-samplings but rather small leads for Obama. This means if Obama doesn't meet or beat his stellar 2008 turnout advantage he's in for a drubbing on election day.

graph - polling 2012

FINISH AT THE BLAZE


blog comments powered by Disqus

'It's true'! NYT op-ed hails Obama's comedic talent ahead of #WHCD (and many agree)

April 30, 2016  02:32 PM

"Putin laughs at him all the time."

The post ‘It’s true’! NYT op-ed hails Obama’s comedic talent ahead of #WHCD (and many agree) appeared first on twitchy.com.

'Very offensive roots': Clinton camp responds after backlash for 'racial slur against Native Americans'

April 30, 2016  01:33 PM

"Perhaps Hill should explain what she meant by this."

The post ‘Very offensive roots’: Clinton camp responds after backlash for ‘racial slur against Native Americans’ appeared first on twitchy.com.

Baghdad in 'state of emergency'; Obama monitoring developments from outdoor situation room ('FORE!')

April 30, 2016  12:12 PM

Got to take care of some priorities ahead of tonight's White House Correspondents Dinner?

The post Baghdad in ‘state of emergency’; Obama monitoring developments from outdoor situation room (‘FORE!’) appeared first on twitchy.com.

Yuge 'No Labels' lift? Piers Morgan spots a 'very good running mate for Trump'

April 30, 2016  10:51 AM

Would the man who had high praise for Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama be perfect for Trump?

The post Yuge ‘No Labels’ lift? Piers Morgan spots a ‘very good running mate for Trump’ appeared first on twitchy.com.

Awkward! Hillary Clinton will try to win over voters she pledged to put out of work

April 30, 2016  09:37 AM

Coal country, here she comes!

The post Awkward! Hillary Clinton will try to win over voters she pledged to put out of work appeared first on twitchy.com.

FSM Archives

10 year FSM Anniversary

More in Politics ( 1 OF 25 ARTICLES )