• IN THIS SECTION

Five Sept. 11 Suspects to Face Trial in New York

The Obama administration has announced it will try 9-11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and other 9-11 Gitmo detainees in a civilian federal court in New York, allowing them the protections of the U.S. Constitution even though they are not U.S. citizens.

Do you agree with this?

Yes
No
I don't know

View results

Four Radical Chinese Muslims Transferred to Bermuda

Four Chinese Uighers (radical Chinese Muslims) were recently transferred to Bermuda. Do you think it's a good idea to release Gitmo detainees to idyllic vacation retreats?

Yes
No
Not Sure

View results

October 23, 2008

Al Qaeda's Propaganda Aims to Affect US Election and Future Strategies

Dr. Walid Phares

A recent Associated Press report and a Washington Post article reported that al Qaeda's web siteshave expressed a strategic preference for the next President of the United States. The Washington Post analysis, observing that multiple sites and commentaries close to the Bin Laden group expressed a similar point of view, concluded that thisindeed is al Qaeda's agenda: that a John McCain Presidency would benefit the Jihadi goals.

A first quick reading of the site's claim may appear to bean endorsement of theSenator from Arizona. A thorough reading of theposted material in original Arabic, however, and an analysis of the global strategies of the Jihadist movement along with the psychological war efforts by al Qaeda andtheir allies around the world, tellus a different story and it is the antipode of the Washington Post conclusion.

Here is my readingof the Jihadi postings:

1)Methodologically: When translating and analyzing material posted by al Qaeda or operatives close to the group, or pretending to do so, one has to keep track of the big strategic picture. Al Qaeda doesn't favor one American politician over another; rather it uses images and slogans toderail the global U.S. response to al Qaeda, regardless of who occupies the White House. It doesn'trely on a left wing/right wing parameter.

For example, al Qaeda (andthe Iranian regime)attacked Labor Prime Minister Tony Blair because he joined the U.S. in the offensive in Iraq and praised French Conservative President Jacques Chirac for opposing that campaign. The Jihadists accepted support from the U.S. when they were fighting the Soviets and are now in sync with populist Marxists in their fight against America. In short there is a "Jihadi agenda" and what they care about is how to advance it.

2) Strategic goals: The Salafist networks, including al Qaeda, want a defeat of U.S.-led efforts in Iraq and in Afghanistan. The Jihadi war room (part of it is within the top tier of al Qaeda and other parts are connected to ideologues and propagandists situatedin various circles in the region and beyond) has a plan for a McCain Administration and another plan for an Obama Administration. It doesn't operate based on the socio-economic agendas of the two candidates but on their assumed national security policies and beliefs.

If McCain is elected, al Qaeda knows that there will be different teams of advisors to wage a different typeof campaign. The Jihadists are veryknowledgeableabout American and European intellectual debates. They also know thethinking processof the counterterrorism teams under Obama. Hence, there is a difference between what al Qaeda's decision-makers and their analysts know, and what their propagandists wish to instill in the U.S. election debate. What they state should be translated and understood only within the greater picture of what they want to achieve.

3) Al Qaeda's propagandists operate within the realm of what the Jihadi machine has created in terms of political culture over the years. The main ideas are that the U.S., under President Bush, tried but failed to destroy al Qaeda; hence, the Jihadist narrative says thatany next U.S. President who continues the policies of the Bush Administration will give victoryto al Qaeda. Inserting their arguments in the ongoing Presidential debate, this means thatthe candidate who advances Bush strategies will be better for the goals of Bin Laden. Hence the site's assertion that al Qaeda welcomes a McCain victory (in a sarcastic style).

4) But this tactic used by the Jihadi propagandists is part of a reverse psychology. It aims at sending a message to the Americanvoters: if you want al Qaeda to win, vote for McCain. The Jihadi web sites cannot state it otherwise, such asif you want the U.S. to win,vote for Obama, because in Jihadi war doctrines there cannot be a victory for America, under any President. Hence, what al Qaeda seems to be attempting to achieve is to affect the perception of the undecided voters by stating to them that the strength of McCain in the war on terror is not really strength. Therefore, in the end, the move is aimed at sinking the chances of the former U.S. Navy Pilot by crumbling the support among undecided voters who might ultimately have come to his campas late asD Day.

5) The savvy Jihadi operatives know all too well that any material they send out in these critical days preceding the U.S. election will be picked up by the media. They also know that anynarrative thatcan be used bythe critics ofMcCainwill lessen his chances on November 4, and that is why the stories were run byAP and the Washington Post. If an "enemy" of the United States asserts that it prefers a particular candidate in the White House, al Qaeda may cause the voters to vote for his opponent. Therefore,the web sites' material might be read in factas encouragement for U.S. voters to defeat McCain, not the other way around. Experts in Jihadi strategies would then advance the thesis that a McCain Administrationis perceived as more dangerous to al Qaeda's long termplans, which would be an additional 4 to 8 years of global efforts against the Islamist movement. This is why their goal is the psychological manipulation of the electorate.

By comparison, in October 2004, BinLaden interveneddirectly via a videotape to threaten the states that vote for a Bush reelection, just a fewdays before the voting. Most probably, the tactics of the Jihadi machine had to evolve and learn from the previous election: if youthreaten Americans with retaliation if they vote for the"tough"candidate, the voters will punish al Qaeda. But, four years later,if youwelcome the "tough"candidate asa potential failure,the Jihadists may expect that American voters will punish the candidate, this time. If anything, the analysts of al Qaeda may have learned that the American public is resilient and wants success.

6) But would that mean that Bin Laden's organization prefers Senator Obama to be in the White House instead? It is not that simple. Al Qaeda knows all too well that theAmerican publicwants a victory over BinLaden's network. The Jihadists aren't interested in who would save the U.S. economy or create jobs and opportunities in the land of the infidels. What they wish for is a rapid withdrawal from Iraq, a messacross the Afghani-Pakistani border and, above all, a cessationof any war of ideas against their ideology. You have to imagine al Qaeda - or the war room behind it - as cold blooded calculators of the options, not as emotional backers of either oneof the candidates.

In 2004, they specifically affected the Spanish elections by blowing up the trains andboosting the opposition's arguments in the media. It worked, as Prime Minister Aznar was ousted. But this didn't mean that they consideredhis successor, Zapatero, as a good guy. Al Qaeda cells are still plotting inside Spain, and Madrid is still engaged against the Jihadists. The difference is that there areno Spanish troops in the Sunni triangle and there is little U.S.-Spanish cooperation internationally.

7) In the end, the Washington Post investigation is based on unofficial web sites'postings rather than on an Al Qaeda public announcement which can still happen at anytime. Besides,the article rushed too quickly to a conclusion the Jihadist propagandists wished the American mainstream to conclude. In short,if this was a planned push by the Jihadi Salafi machine (and we don't know yet),it succeeded in triggeringa mainstream journalistic reactionabout the election debate.

When al Qaedapropagandist strikes occur, America must always respond with a unified front. Even at the peak of dizzying exchanges between the candidates,the two campaigns must strike back as one against the Jihadists, even if only onecamp is attacked. For the ultimate goal of the terrorists is to defeat the United States, not oneparticular candidate.

FamilySecurityMatters.org Contributing Editor Dr. Walid Phares is the Director of the Future Terrorism Project at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies and a visiting scholar at the European Foundation for Democracy. He is the author of The Confrontation: Winning the War against Future Jihad.

Reader Comments: Submit Your Comment (0)

Print This E-mail This

Share It: