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November 12, 2008
Exclusive: What Went Wrong for Republicans Last Tuesday?
Monday morning quarterbacking will never cease, so let me step into that position to tell the GOP why they so poorly fumbled this past election – and it had nothing to do with Obama’s celebrity, any perceived shift in the mood of this country, nor what critics are blaming a “bad pick” in a Vice Presidential candidate. Here are the three most significant blunders of the campaign.
Poor Media Strategies
The mainstream media was overwhelmingly slanted towards Barack Obama. Indeed, this past weekend Washington Post ombudsman Deborah Howell wrote that readers would be correct to assert that the paper suffered from a “tilt toward Democrat Barack Obama.” Chris Matthews at the “Obama headquarters” of MSNBC had a “thrill” going up his leg – and this time it wasn’t from his partner in crime Keith “My Head Injury May Explain My Insanity” Olbermann. Plus, who can forget the softballs to Obama during most interviews he had on network news? The McCain/Palin campaign had the unfortunate task of trying extra hard just to get their message across over the mainstream media, and they failed miserably – in fact, it seemed, sometimes, they weren’t even really trying.
Though some colleagues of mine have shared similar complaints, I will focus just on my dealings with the McCain/Palin media folks. They very, very rarely made anyone available from the campaign, even when the show I executive produce, a nationally syndicated talk radio show, bent over backwards to give them air time to discuss and debate the issues. Instead, the media folks seemed to fall back on two silly strategies:
1) Put campaign surrogates and the candidates themselves, on talk radio shows whose audience will already support them; and
2) Place campaign surrogates on shows that no one watches – or, in the very least, also already have their minds made up.
How many times did I see senior advisor to the McCain campaign, Nancy Pfotenhauer, appear on Hardball? Normal, everyday, undecided voters do not watch Hardball and couldn’t identify Chris Matthews even if he slobbered on them. Yet the campaign spent hours of their time trying to convince Matthews that the thrill going up his leg will dissipate over time. It is undoubtedly important to put campaign surrogates and the candidates on popular conservative talk shows – like Rush Limbaugh or Laura Ingraham – to keep support and enthusiasm high, but they spent too little time pitching their message to independents, who, by all polls, were the voters who tilted the election towards Obama.
Voter Drives
Yes, voter turnout was high for this election, but it wasn’t that high. At most, voter turnout this election was about one percentage point higher than 2004, according to American University’s Center for the Study of the American Electorate. Stephen Ansolabehere, a political science professor at Harvard and MIT, told the Associated Press that the youth vote did not show up in unheard of waves either.
But out of those who did vote, obviously there were more Obama supporters than McCain supporters. Where were the voter drives by the GOP? Where was the push of the youth vote to get to the polls? Where was the urgency by the GOP about the need to vote, in a way similar to the urgency by the Democrats?
There was no doubt going to be a higher turnout of African-American voters in this election, most of which would end up voting for Obama; yet the GOP seemingly did nothing to counteract the increase in turnout that would swell towards Obama. There seemed to be no concerted, national effort on this front, and while the McCain/Palin campaign takes some of the blame, the one who should shoulder the burden for this problem is the chair of the GOP, Mike Duncan. Recent reports suggest many in the party are calling for his ouster, and speculation suggests Newt Gingrich and Michael Steele are going to seek the chairmanship. While I believe Steele would be best, I think either of these men would make far better a choice than Duncan.
Sarah Palin – Not Nearly Enough
As someone who watched many of her rallies, there is no doubt in my mind that had she played a bigger part in this campaign, and was not muzzled as much as she was, it could have tilted at least the popular vote towards McCain, particularly in the all-important swing States. At Palin’s rallies there was excitement in the air – the kind of excitement I have never seen, or even felt before. Socially, I don’t fall in line with all of her stances, but “gosh-darn it” I loved this woman and was rooting for her more than I was rooting for McCain. She far exceeded expectations, given the leash the campaign had on her, regardless of what her critics would have you believe.
Republicans love her; Democrats fear her. There is a reason why her name is already being thrown about for a possibly 2012 run. And dontcha know, I already want my Palin 2012 sticker for my car.
What Didn’t Play a Role
Sure, other things went wrong in the campaign: McCain didn’t show the fire he showed in the last few days of the campaign, throughout the entire process; the economy disaster caused by House Democrats in the ‘90s or the campaign freeze McCain took to address it; and McCain’s lack of solid conservative values. But if you look at the actual popular vote count, it’s clear that those so-called problems had little effect. McCain was lackluster and somewhat dull for most of the campaign, and he sure didn’t pick up millions of votes in the last few days when he was fired up – they were already there for him. The economy was a major issue, but polls still showed people caring about the war in Iraq and the war on Terrorism. And, as I’ve heard, some suggest we’re not a “center Right” nation anymore and the Republicans are too conservative on social issues is pure nonsense – with all the votes cast for the McCain/Palin ticket, it’s pretty clear that social conservatism still counts.
What Republicans should do Next
The campaign for Presidency in 2012, as it stands, has a simple recipe for success: start early; have much stronger media presence where the independent voters are watching and hearing you; and be organized in the field. At the end of the day, elections still remain about getting people off their couch and to the polls and this year we just plain lost on that count, and all others.
FamilySecurityMatters.org Contributing Editor Jason Rantz is the Executive Producer of the nationally syndicated talk program, the World Famous Phil Hendrie Show.
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