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December 29, 2008
Are WMD Strikes "Highly Likely” or “Less Likely” Over the Next Five Years?
An intelligence assessment obtained by the Associated Press, the "Internal Homeland Security Threat Assessment for the years 2008-2013,” projected several "dramatic" developments. Among these projections was that Terrorism directed against the U.S. will "continue to be driven by driven by instability in the Middle East and Africa." The report asserted that WMD attacks "could be carried out against America" but then added that "these threats are also the most unlikely because it is so difficult for al-Qaida and similar groups to acquire the materials needed to carry out such plots." The report reasserts a number of predictions made before and noted that increasing numbers of individuals will pose as refugees or asylum seekers.
While the report doesn't add much to previously projected assessments over the past few years, it deserves a thorough evaluation by the counterterrorism community in general and the experts studying the strategies and tactics of the Jihadists. For as we are moving under a new U.S. Administration, with the expectation that new directions are to be set, a review of the past five to seven years in terms of War on Terror strategies is now a must. In other words, the counterterrorism community in the public and private sectors needs to draw conclusions as to policies and strategies adopted under the departing Administration. A serious review of U.S. governmental reports issued since the beginning of the War on Terror must be undertaken and compared and contrasted with developments in the real world and on the battlefields, as some of the assertions repeated by these reports contradicted each other such as the issue of WMD. For example, while many national security reports underlined the "ineluctability" of a non-conventional attack, other reports (and sometimes the same assessment) found the Terrorists’ ability to obtain these weapons as "less likely." We hope the global review of the War on Terror would be conducted as soon as possible at a national scale, involving the U.S. Congress, former and forthcoming U.S. officials, as well as private sector analysts.
Commenting on some aspects of the report released by the AP, I made several points in an interview to Fox News this past weekend.
Addressing the report's assertion that in the next five years America will be hit by a bio (or other WMD) attack, I advanced another focus to the analysis: that is, the intention and the identity of the perpetrators of such attacks. Indeed, over the past five years, U.S. reports concentrated on the "weapons," not on the "users." Thus, I am arguing that in the next five years we need to focus more on the "users" to project their capacity and their intentions. For example, al Qaeda and other Jihadists most likely haven't yet (to this hour) acquired such capacity inside the U.S. for the simple reason that if they had, they would have used them already. While Iran's regime and Hezbollah have access to WMDs, their decision to use them follows another strain of logic. Thus, if we project the use of such weapons over the next five years, the possibility is high.
Al Qaeda and its ilk would be looking to have access to such weapons in Pakistan. However, homegrown Jihadists have access to scientific labs here in the U.S. and in the West.
The report raises the issue of Internet recruiting. I agree with this point, but we need to keep in mind that a mass of already radicalized Jihadis have already moved to the U.S. over at least the past 18 years and they in turn are radicalizing others here. Cyber attacks are possible because it is very difficult (though not impossible) to regulate the Internet. Some projects available now assert that counter cyber warfare is possible.
Last but not least, a point made by the report declares the crossing borders crisis as a source for Terrorism in the next five years. Here again, I agree and stated to Fox News that if a cell is really determined to cross the Mexican border and insert itself into the U.S., at this stage it can. But I added that many among those who may engage in actions in the future have already crossed not only through the Mexican but also the Canadian border years ago. In other words, the "pool" is already here.
More discussions of the global assessment will be posted soon.
To watch the short interview go to "Fox News' Gregg Jarett on threats to US: "Al Qaeda will seek WMD while Iran already has it.”
FamilySecurityMatters.org Contributing Editor Dr. Walid Phares is the Director of the Future Terrorism Project at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies and the author of "The Confrontation: Winning the War against Future Jihad."
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