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December 31, 2008
Protecting America in the New Missile Age – Chapter 4: Effects of a Missile Attack on New York City
Editor’s note: This is the fourth in an 18-part series of excerpts from Protecting America in the new Missile Age – A Reader. Published by The Heritage Foundation with a number of prominent contributors, its purpose is to inform and educate all Americans about the security challenges we face in an ever-changing world.
The terrorist strikes on New York City on September 11, 2001, were the most horrific attacks on America by a foreign enemy since Pearl Harbor. In the aftermath, 2,819 people from 115 nations were dead. The heart of the greatest city in the world was crippled. The Stock Exchange closed for six days. Over 400,000 New Yorkers suffered post-traumatic stress disorder. The cleanup of Ground Zero alone cost over $600 million. The city lost over 146,000 jobs and suffered an economic loss of over $105 billion.
But if Ground Zero in New York had been the site of a low-altitude nuclear detonation of a bomb delivered by a ballistic missile rather than an attack by two commercial airliners striking two buildings, the results would have been very, very different.
By the standards of what America’s enemies might muster as a nuclear threat, a single, small nuclear weapon is a modest attack. A 10-kiloton warhead can explode with the force of 10,000 tons of TNT. A low airburst means that the weapon would be detonated a few thousand feet above the city so that the explosion’s initial fireball would not touch the earth, ensuring that Manhattan buildings and inhabitants, not the ground, absorbed most of the blast. From the standpoint of maximizing damage, a low airburst is the preferred method of attack, which makes nuclear weapons delivered by ballistic missiles a particularly heinous threat.
While the explosion of a nuclear weapon would create a false dawn no matter what time of day it detonated, seconds after the explosion it would be “after midnight” for New York City. It would be the city’s darkest hour.
In a low-altitude explosion, about 50% of the energy released by the detonation takes the form of the “blast,” an enormous wave of overpressurized air caused by the nuclear explosion. Within seconds, nearly all of the buildings within a half-mile radius would be destroyed by the concussion from the initial blast. Roughly half of the population within the blast radius would die almost instantaneously from collapsing buildings. Many others, without hope of rescue or aid, would soon die from mortal injuries inflicted by the blast. The blast would turn debris from collapsing buildings into makeshift missiles, extending as far out as 3.5 miles. Those outside of the immediate blast radius would receive moderate doses of radiation and suffer significant lung and eardrum injuries.
Many within sight of the initial blast but beyond the 3.5-mile radius of blast damage would experience second-degree and third-degree burns and retinal damage due to the extensive infrared light emission. About one-third of the energy from a low-altitude blast is released as some form of thermal radiation. The temperature in the immediate vicinity of the explosion would rocket several tens of millions of degrees in seconds, and all of that heat would have to go somewhere. After about a minute, the fireball would cool and thermal radiation would subside, but fires would be raging out of control across the city.
A typical detonation of this type does not generate a significant amount of radioactive fallout. Depending on the relative height of the blast, airburst detonations do not “vacuum up” significant amounts of dirt particles that can become contaminated. However, many people would likely panic because of their intense fear of exposure to radiation.
Some of the secondary effects of the blast would present numerous obstacles to emergency responders and rescue teams. The electromagnetic pulse (EMP) emitted from the blast could disrupt communication devices up to three miles from ground zero. This potential communication failure would enhance anxiety and confusion. Downed bridges, roads littered with debris, collapsed subway tunnels, and burning dockside piers would further complicate the task of reaching the injured and evacuating residents. While it is impossible to calculate the precise number of fatalities from such conditions, studies show that they would be massive.
Effective medical care and infrastructure would be the most pressing issues following a disaster of this magnitude. Victims in the immediate vicinity who survived the blast but sustained significant radiation would require medical attention to avoid serious complications from infection. One of the most serious immediate effects of radiation exposure is damage to the immune system. Thus, the greatest imminent threat to life is not the injuries themselves, but disease.
Survivors would decide either to evacuate or to “shelter in place.” Experts predict that sheltering in place (for example, in basements) would be the best option, but the initial reaction of many would be to flee because of such concerns as leaking gas lines and broken and contaminated water mains. A mass exodus would be problematic. People would have to walk out of Manhattan, assuming that they could find a serviceable bridge. Additionally, damage from the blast would cause power generation and distribution systems (food and fuel) to be disrupted for several weeks. Emergency supplies would need to be delivered to accommodate those who remained sheltered in place. Massive looting could ensue, eventually spreading out to areas not affected by the initial blast.
For the survivors of the nuclear attack, the nightmare would have only begun. Rebuilding would be an unprecedented challenge. Historically, decontamination of radioactive sites involves removing all of the affected material. This means that most buildings in the immediate blast area and adjacent areas would need to be bulldozed and removed. Even at some distance from ground zero, buildings that sustained minor damage from the blast wave would have affected surfaces that required decontamination. This process would take years and would be extraordinarily expensive – more expensive than actually rebuilding.
In recent testimony before Congress, William W. Beach, Heritage Foundation expert and director of the Center for Data Analysis, estimated that the 9/11 attacks reduced U.S. economic activity by as much as $225 billion in the 12 months following the attacks. These costs would pale in comparison to the economic impact of the detonation of a small nuclear warhead over Manhattan.
Next week: Chapter Six – The Technical Feasibility of Missile Defense, by Gregory H. Canavan, Ph.D.
FamilySecurityMatters.org partner The Heritage Foundation is committed to building an America where freedom, opportunity, prosperity and civil society flourish.
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