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March 23, 2009
Obama’s Message to Iran: Is the Regime Interested?
President Obama addressed a message to the Iranian people and leadership calling on the regime to open a new page in the strained relationship. Tehran answered quickly that its expectations are to see Washington change its behavior. In comments made on Russia Today TV, I clarified that the Iranian regime expects the Obama Administration to take more steps including apologizing for so-called “past mistakes.” But the U.S. Administration is on a different track, as far as we know. It is giving Ahmadinejad a chance to begin changing his own policies. While on the surface, we see a moment of rapprochement, the actual issues to discuss are still too tough to solve. Washington wants to engage Iran on the ground of stopping the military nuclear program and ceasing support to Hezbollah and Hamas, while Tehran considers these matters as a no-go area of concession.
In a recent interview with Beirut-based NBN TV, I argued that this statement by Obama may be an opportunity for the Iranian decision-makers to consider a U-turn on strategic matters, but the fact is that the regime feels it has the upper hand everywhere in the Middle East. Why would they make concessions if their perception is that the U.S. is already withdrawing from Iraq, is requesting their help in Afghanistan and is not committed to supporting democracy in Iran? In my recent book The Confrontation: Winning the War against Future Jihad, I recommended a full-fledged support to forces of change inside Iran as a strategic path to influencing Tehran. Without internal leverage over the regime it is less likely that American new messaging would bear fruit. What we are witnessing now is an experiment with the Iranian regime which may harden the regime even further, unless Ahmadinejad loses the forthcoming election next June. But let's keep in mind that power, real power in Iran, is in the hands of Khamenei. And I don't think the Ayatollah is interested in de-radicalizing his own regime.
FamilySecurityMatters.org Contributing Editor Dr. Walid Phares is the Director of the Future Terrorism Project at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies and the author of The Confrontation: Winning the War against Future Jihad.
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