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March 30, 2009
Iran is Having an Unhappy New Year
Persian New Year is celebrated with gusto beginning with the first day of Spring – March 21st – and the celebration goes on for 13 days, culminating in a picnic near a stream. It is as old – and has interesting similarities – to the way the Chinese celebrate their new year. Ayatollah Khomeini frowned on this celebration (too happy for him), but despite his efforts, he could not suppress Persian love of parties and memories of Islam’s predecessor, Zoroastrianism, of which this holiday is a remnant. Iran, alone among Muslim countries, has refused to abandon its pre-Islamic heritage.
This year, however, the joy is dampened by some very troubling reality. The Asia Times posted an alarming report claiming that Iran is dying. Western demographers claim Iran’s birthrate during the past 20 years shows the fastest decline in any country ever, and the government is alarmed. After the death of Ayatollah Khomeini, who forbade any sort of contraception, his successor saw that Iran could not sustain a population of 70 million, for which there was not enough water, not to mention food. Iran’s was the first Muslim government that initiated a program of contraception and education for engaged couples before they could marry.
Voluntary reduction in family size is one thing – but collapse is quite another. When populations start to collapse, as they have in every country that had totalitarian governments in the 20th century (Russia, Germany, Greece, Japan, Italy, Romania), the future looks bleak. Perhaps this decline will stabilize at some point and we will have a world that is far less crowded than it is today. But what if it doesn’t stabilize?
Iran’s problem, however, seems to be one of painful dysfunction. Young people want to leave (they will tell you this); when they cannot, they increasingly resort to drugs; the opium consumption has soared – to 1.7 million addicts, according to the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations. In another report (Austria’s Der Standard, February 3rd) “more than 90 percent of Tehran’s prostitutes have passed the university entrance exam, and more than 30% are registered at a university.” That is shocking.
Prostitution or trafficking of women due to poverty is one thing; but educated women selecting opulence (or a cure for boredom) is something else. These behaviors reflect popular demoralization, which bodes ill for Iran’s future.
Add to this the economic problems from the decline of oil prices. The Islamic Revolutionary Government has kept the lid on discontent by subsidizing everything – which they cannot do any longer. Rising expectations have been dashed, which is always a dangerous thing for a government.
The government has responded by a new round of suppression (how women dress, closing down newspapers and journals, and arresting those who investigate corruption.) Government money is wasted on provocative military projects (a drone shot down over Iraq) and nuclear adventurism. But the public is not being adequately distracted. Even the imminent election is listless. The one candidate even remotely “reformist,” Khatemi, has withdrawn his name.
I am inclined to think that the Islamic government, no matter how religious, is not suicidal. But there is certainly a possibility that desperation can lead to rash acts because there is nothing to lose. I hope this is not the case. They are on a banana peel, and are far from being the regional superpower that they pretend to be.
Meanwhile, Iranians living abroad (particularly those in the U.S.) are demonstrating their timeless vitality. They thrive in almost every enterprise, and we are lucky to have them here! The Student Movement Coordination Committee for Democracy in Iran (a branch of the Iranian Secularist Third Force Movement), stated on line: “…we must take back our historical culture and universities from this despotic regime and coordinate all Nationalist, Secular and Free Thinker forces in order to push back this regime. Yes, we should not stop till we free totally our land from the hands of the theocratic regime!”
The Iranian spirit is alive and well – for now, in exile. Maybe next year in Iran?
FamilySecurityMatters.org Contributing Editor Dr. Laina Farhat-Holzman is an historian, lecturer, and author who also writes for the Santa Cruz Sentinel. You may contact her at Lfarhat102@aol.com or http://www.globalthink.net/.
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