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June 9, 2009
Exclusive: A Brief Synopsis of Friday's Iranian Election
On Friday, the Islamic Republic of Iran will hold its much anticipated presidential election. Iran's presidential election in 2005 ushered in the perpetually controversial and occasionally bizarre era of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran's current president. No matter the outcome, this election promises to be an interesting look into the present situation in the Islamic Republic.
The candidates alone indicate the real level of democratic transparency in Iran: of nearly 400 registered candidates, only four (including the incumbent) were deemed "eligible" by the Guardian Council – part of the clerical shadow government behind the scenes of the Iranian state.
Challenging Ahmadinejad are three men (no female candidates were deemed eligible by the Guardian Council): Mir-Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohsen Rezaei. Mehdi Karroubi is the former speaker of the Iranian Parliament, known in Farsi as the Majlis. Mohsen Razaei, an independent conservative, is a former commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, and has been accused by Argentine officials of having been involved in the 1994 bombing of a Jewish cultural center in Buenos Aires, which killed 85 and injured 151. The decision by the Guardian Council to approve the candidacy of a man wanted by Interpol is curious, to say the least. However, neither of Mehdi Karroubi nor Mohsen Rezaei is favored to win.
President Ahmadinejad’s real challenge comes from Mir-Hossein Mousavi, a reformist who served previously as the Iranian Prime Minister before the position was abolished in 1989, and who has also served as the Minister of Foreign Affairs. Mousavi's popularity has been boosted not only by his criticism of Ahmadinejad, but also by the active participation of his wife, Zahra Rahnavard, in his election campaign. Mousavi's candidacy is fascinating due to one other factor: his endorsement by Ahmadinejad’s predecessor, the moderate reformist Mohammed Khatami. Khatami had announced his candidacy in February (AP, CNN), and began campaigning in short order. However, Khatami was attacked by an angry mob at a rally celebrating the 30th anniversary of the Iranian Revolution, and several websites promoting his candidacy were blocked. Khatami rescinded his candidacy in March (CNN, BBC, Times), and endorsed Mir-Hossein Mousavi. Khatami himself is seen by both Western and Iranian observers as a moderate, so his endorsement of Mousavi indicates that Mousavi might very well attempt to govern along the same moderate lines that Khatami did while he held the Iranian presidency.
Intelligence officials claim that Iran is notoriously difficult to collect intelligence on, and that difficulty is every bit as prominent with respect to Iranian politics. Although Mahmoud Ahmadinejad appears to be poised to win, there is some question as to whether or not the Iranian clerics favor Ahmadinejad’s re-election. In a recent debate, Mousavi scored points against Ahmadinejad by claiming that the constant running of Ahmadinejad’s mouth has caused significant damage to Iran's image abroad. Ahmadinejad’s gaffes in the last year alone are too numerous to list, and he threw in a real corker during the debate by insulting Mousavi's wife for her participation in his campaign. Assuming that either Mousavi or Ahmadinejad will win the election, and assuming only for the sake of arguments that Mousavi held precisely the same views as Ahmadinejad, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini and his cadre would certainly stand to gain from the installation of a figurehead president with a bit more tact and restraint than Ahmadinejad is capable of.
Even more so than the results of Sunday's elections in Lebanon, the result of the Iranian presidential election will offer a fascinating glimpse into the strategic situation in Iran for the next several years. If Ahmadinejad wins, the world can expect Iran to continue to posture itself aggressively against the West and the international community. If Mir-Hossein Mousavi prevails, his victory could offer the mullahs behind the scenes and opportunity to moderate the position of the Iranian government. If Mehdi Karroubi or Mohsen Rezaei squeak out a dark horse victory like Ahmedinejad did in 2005 - and particularly if it's Mohsen Razaei - then all bets are off.
Whatever the result, the next four years of Iranian-Western relations promise to be interesting – but which shade of "interesting" is anyone's guess.
The candidates alone indicate the real level of democratic transparency in Iran: of nearly 400 registered candidates, only four (including the incumbent) were deemed "eligible" by the Guardian Council – part of the clerical shadow government behind the scenes of the Iranian state.
Challenging Ahmadinejad are three men (no female candidates were deemed eligible by the Guardian Council): Mir-Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohsen Rezaei. Mehdi Karroubi is the former speaker of the Iranian Parliament, known in Farsi as the Majlis. Mohsen Razaei, an independent conservative, is a former commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, and has been accused by Argentine officials of having been involved in the 1994 bombing of a Jewish cultural center in Buenos Aires, which killed 85 and injured 151. The decision by the Guardian Council to approve the candidacy of a man wanted by Interpol is curious, to say the least. However, neither of Mehdi Karroubi nor Mohsen Rezaei is favored to win.
President Ahmadinejad’s real challenge comes from Mir-Hossein Mousavi, a reformist who served previously as the Iranian Prime Minister before the position was abolished in 1989, and who has also served as the Minister of Foreign Affairs. Mousavi's popularity has been boosted not only by his criticism of Ahmadinejad, but also by the active participation of his wife, Zahra Rahnavard, in his election campaign. Mousavi's candidacy is fascinating due to one other factor: his endorsement by Ahmadinejad’s predecessor, the moderate reformist Mohammed Khatami. Khatami had announced his candidacy in February (AP, CNN), and began campaigning in short order. However, Khatami was attacked by an angry mob at a rally celebrating the 30th anniversary of the Iranian Revolution, and several websites promoting his candidacy were blocked. Khatami rescinded his candidacy in March (CNN, BBC, Times), and endorsed Mir-Hossein Mousavi. Khatami himself is seen by both Western and Iranian observers as a moderate, so his endorsement of Mousavi indicates that Mousavi might very well attempt to govern along the same moderate lines that Khatami did while he held the Iranian presidency.
Intelligence officials claim that Iran is notoriously difficult to collect intelligence on, and that difficulty is every bit as prominent with respect to Iranian politics. Although Mahmoud Ahmadinejad appears to be poised to win, there is some question as to whether or not the Iranian clerics favor Ahmadinejad’s re-election. In a recent debate, Mousavi scored points against Ahmadinejad by claiming that the constant running of Ahmadinejad’s mouth has caused significant damage to Iran's image abroad. Ahmadinejad’s gaffes in the last year alone are too numerous to list, and he threw in a real corker during the debate by insulting Mousavi's wife for her participation in his campaign. Assuming that either Mousavi or Ahmadinejad will win the election, and assuming only for the sake of arguments that Mousavi held precisely the same views as Ahmadinejad, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini and his cadre would certainly stand to gain from the installation of a figurehead president with a bit more tact and restraint than Ahmadinejad is capable of.
Even more so than the results of Sunday's elections in Lebanon, the result of the Iranian presidential election will offer a fascinating glimpse into the strategic situation in Iran for the next several years. If Ahmadinejad wins, the world can expect Iran to continue to posture itself aggressively against the West and the international community. If Mir-Hossein Mousavi prevails, his victory could offer the mullahs behind the scenes and opportunity to moderate the position of the Iranian government. If Mehdi Karroubi or Mohsen Rezaei squeak out a dark horse victory like Ahmedinejad did in 2005 - and particularly if it's Mohsen Razaei - then all bets are off.
Whatever the result, the next four years of Iranian-Western relations promise to be interesting – but which shade of "interesting" is anyone's guess.
FamilySecurityMatters.org Contributing Editor Tom Ordeman, Jr. is a technical writer for a major defense contractor in Hampton Roads, Virginia. Feedback: editorialdirector@familysecuritymatters.org.
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