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August 3, 2009
Exclusive: Obama Ignores Asian Arms Race to America’s Peril
The rising strength of China was a source of concern in the annual report on Chinese Military Power released by Secretary of Defense Robert Gates on March 25th. The report sees China’s rapid procurement of advanced weapons as an effort to dominant Asia, Though Taiwan remains a focus of Beijing’s military effort, the 2009 report, like its predecessors, warned that China wants to project its power beyond the democratic island. Beijing’s “dependence on secure access to markets and natural resources, particularly metals and fossil fuels, has become an increasingly significant factor shaping China’s strategic behavior,” says the report. Beijing does not just want to convert the South China Sea into its own lake, but to expand its influence into the Indian Ocean.
Yet, Secretary Gates, in accord with the views of President Barack Obama, has not followed the logic of his own Pentagon report. He has slowed naval shipbuilding and missile defense, while ending production of the F-22 air superiority fighter. And when the House of Representatives voted to keep the F-22 program going, the Obama administration mounted a major, and successful, effort to kill the initiative in the Senate.
But in Asia, on the front line of the Chinese threat, things are different.
On July 26th, India launched its first nuclear-powered submarine in a ceremony at the southern port city of Vishakhapatnam. The 6,000 ton warship is named Arihant, which means “destroyer of enemies” in Hindi. Indian military officials said the submarine would be capable of carrying 12 ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads, and would be the first of five boats in the class. The submarine will likely be armed with a sea version of the Agni II medium range mobile land-based missile which India recently tested on May 9th.
At the launching ceremony, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said, "We do not have any aggressive designs nor do we seek to threaten anyone. We seek an external environment in our region and beyond that is conducive to our peaceful development and the protection of our value systems." But he also said, "Nevertheless it is incumbent upon us to take all measures necessary to safeguard our country and to keep pace with technological advancements. It has rightly been said that eternal vigilance is the right price for liberty". The Prime Minister praised India’s growing industrial and scientific capabilities, and stated that “the launch represents the determination and patriotism of our technologists, scientists and defence personnel who have overcome several hurdles and barriers to enable the country to acquire self-reliance in the most advanced areas of defence technology".
The choice of July 26th for the launch was significant as it was part of the 10th anniversary of the battles in the snow-capped mountains of Kargil in Jammu and Kashmir against infiltrating troops from Pakistan. Over 500 Indian soldiers died in two months of fighting before the Pakistani invaders were pushed out of the country. The border clash almost triggered a fourth full-scale war between India and Pakistan, both of whom have nuclear weapons. The two-day weekend celebration of New Delhi’s 1999 victory was not lost on either Pakistan or its ally China.
Beijing’s official news service Xinhua gave prominent coverage to Islamabad’s criticism, reporting, “The induction of a nuclear submarine in the Indian Navy is a step towards destabilizing the region, and will trigger a nuclear arms race, said the Pakistan Navy Monday. Commenting on the induction of nuclear submarine in the Indian Navy, spokesman of Pakistan Navy Salman Ali said Indian nuclear submarine would leave far-reaching effects not only on Pakistan but also on the Indian Ocean and adjoining coastal countries.”
Indian Defence minister A.K. Antony had said something similar, but with a different spin. “The present situation in our neighbourhood” demands greater acquisition of strategic assets according to Anthony. Though neither Singh nor Antony mentioned China, the launch of INS Arihant was as much a warning to China as to Pakistan. Beijing has sent its own nuclear submarines into the Indian Ocean. China has also established a military base in the Coco Islands, leased from the military junta in Myanmar (Burma), and the People’s Liberation Army operates out of the Pakistan port of Gwadar Pasni.
The Indian Defense Ministry released a report July 9th saying that China’s military buildup and modernization program must be “monitored carefully” to protect India’s security. The report cited “China’s stated objectives, in their White Paper of National Defence in 2008, of developing strategic missile and space-based assets and of rapidly enhancing its blue-water navy to conduct operations in distant waters, as well as the systematic upgrading of infrastructure, reconnaissance and surveillance, quick response and operational capabilities in the border areas.” A few days later, Bharat Verma, editor of the Indian Defence Review, warned that Beijing was preparing to attack as early as 2012 to divert attention away from its “unprecedented” internal problems.
The Indian report follows similar warnings from Japan and Australia concerning the threat from a “rising” China, messages that President Obama has ignored.
The latest U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue was held July 27th-28th in Washington. On the day the conference opened, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had an op-ed published in The Wall Street Journal proclaiming the need to cooperate with Beijing. President Obama had added the State Department as co-chair of the S&ED with the Treasury, which had been hosting the meetings solo since they began under the Bush administration in 2006. The hope among China watchers was that State wound actually bring a strategic dimension to talks that had centered on trade and finance. The U.S. has transferred $2 trillion to China over the last decade via the trade deficit, a measure of how much America has done to create the very Chinese military-industrial complex that now menaces Asia. China’s economic rise supports Beijing’s policies around the world which are at odds with U.S. interests in every trouble spot.
The main Obama administration initiative with China has been to emphasize environmental cooperation as if the U.S. was trying to create a common enemy in “global warming” that could overshadow the traditional geopolitical conflicts that divide the two nations. This was the message Secretary Clinton took to Beijing in February, and which has been reinforced by a parade of Obama officials to China in the months since. Beijing, however, rejects the idea that Green policies should in any way hamper economic growth.
One of the lead Chinese participants at the S&ED was State Councilor Dai Bingguo, serving as special representative of President Hu Jintao. Mr. Dai had served in this same capacity at the recent G-8 summit in L’Aquila, Italy. At a side meeting of the O-5 (China, India, Mexico, Brazil and South Africa), he demanded that the international community “respect the right of developing countries to independent economic development, take into full account the specific national conditions of developing countries, and ensure that developing countries enjoy necessary room for development policies.”
The main outcome of the S&ED was the signing of a memo to promote a “discussion and exchange of views” for addressing climate change with “practical solutions” for the “transition to low-carbon economies.” The memo endorses “successful international negotiations on climate change” without stipulating the desired outcome. It calls for “joint research, development, deployment, and transfer, as mutually agreed, of climate-friendly technologies” and “pragmatic cooperation on climate change between cities, universities, provinces and states of the two countries.” The website EcoPartnerships.gov has even been set up to further this last point.
On the basis of this empty rhetoric, President Obama believes he has formed a partnership with China. Beijing is quite willing to let him think so. As long as the American leader can be misdirected, China can continue to rise and pursue its own interests unimpeded.
The effort to further a U.S.-China alignment is doomed to failure. Yet, at the end of her WSJ column, Clinton proposed to “build the trust and relationships to tackle the most vexing global challenges of today – and of the coming generation. The Chinese have a wise aphorism: ‘When you are in a common boat, you need to cross the river peacefully together.’ Today, we will join our Chinese counterparts in grabbing an oar and starting to row.” Can anyone take such coffee house babble seriously?
It will not be rowboats, but submarines and aircraft carriers, warplanes and missiles that will determine Asian and world politics in the future as in the past. Clinton claimed in her WSJ column, “While we are working to make China an important partner, we will continue to work closely with our long-standing allies and friends in Asia.” But India and our Asian allies see China’s further rise to be a danger, not the grounds for a budding partnership. The inherent contradiction in Clinton’s statement needs to be resolved in favor of America’s allies.
FamilySecurityMatters.org Contributing Editor William R. Hawkins is a consultant specializing in international economic and national security issues.
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