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August 6, 2009
President ... For Now: Ahmadinejad Threatened On All Sides
Yesterday’s swearing-in of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for a second four-year term as president of the Islamic Republic of Iran cannot resolve the regime's crisis.
Even some Ahmadinejad supporters admit in private that, faced with mounting public anger over last June's election results, he may be unable to complete his term.
Signs of trouble were abundant at Monday's ceremony – a legally necessary prelude to yesterday's – when "Supreme Guide" Ali Khamenei officially "endorsed" the election results with a fatwa appointing Ahmadinejad to a new term.
Concerned that protestors might disrupt that ceremony, organizers kept its venue a secret until the last minute. This was the first time in 29 years that the "endorsement" event was shrouded in secrecy.
It was also the first to be boycotted by more than a dozen top regime figures, including the two former presidents still alive and in Iran. At least four of Ahmadinejad's outgoing Cabinet ministers also stayed away.
Part of the ceremony was broadcast live on national TV, giving a glimpse into the deepening split in the regime. Some key figures such as Majlis (parliament) Speaker Ali Larijani and Chief Justice Mahmoud Shahroudi refused to congratulate Ahmadinejad on his re-election and left the ceremony without shaking his hand.
Then there was the hint of cooling ties between Ahmadinejad and Khamenei. Once an aide had read the endorsement "fatwa" aloud, Khamenei extended his hand toward Ahmadinejad, expecting the president to kiss it in accordance with tradition. But Ahmadinejad refused – preferring to kiss his shoulders in a style popular among Arabs.
This was Ahmadinejad's first opportunity to demonstrate his displeasure at Khamenei's public intervention in the new Cabinet's formation.
Last month, the "supreme guide" sent the president a missive ordering him to cancel the appointment of Esfandiar Mashai – Ahamdinejad's closest friend and, some say, spiritual guru – as his first assistant. In an unprecedented move, Khamenei ordered the missive published – a public signal that Ahmadinejad can't choose his team as he pleases.
The bizarre scene between Khamenei and Ahmadinejad, however, deceived no one. The reality of power in the Islamic Republic was on display outside – the more than 100,000 troops and security agents stationed throughout the capital.
Yet, despite public threats of retribution aired in the official media, at least a third of the 290 parliament members were expected to boycott today's ceremony.
Ahmadinejad has three big reasons to worry:
* The pro-democracy movement shows no signs of dissipating. If anything, new groups are joining the protest each day, giving the movement an even broader base.
* Both Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders are trying to dictate the new administration's composition and shape its broader policies.
* Perhaps more worrying from Ahmadinejad's point of view, rivals are already emerging in his own radical camp.
Larijani is positioning himself to become a presidential candidate if Ahmadinejad is forced out. As Majlis speaker, Larijani could make life difficult for Ahmadinejad by refusing to endorse his Cabinet nominations and delaying passage of legislation needed for his administration to function.
Another Ahmadinejad rival is Mohsen Qalibaf, a former police chief and Revolutionary Guard officer who's now Tehran mayor. He has criticized Ahmadinejad's "questionable re-election" publicly and warned that the president may be leading the country "into dangerous waters."
More surprising, the Khamenei-owned daily newspaper Jumhuri Eslami (Islamic Republic) just published an editorial attacking the government's "reckless policies."
It asked: "Are we going to exclude the known and tested figures of the revolution in favor of newcomers who played no role in achieving our victory?"
The "known and tested figures" include former Presidents Rafsanjani and Khatami, former Prime Minister Mir Hussein Mousavi and Mehdi Karrubi, a former Majlis speaker. The "newcomers" include Ahmadinejad and Mashai, who were young when Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini seized power in 1979.
Ahmadinejad has hailed his recent re-election as a "historic victory" – but "Pyrrhic victory" may prove the more apt phrase.
FamilySecurityMatters.org Contributing Editor Amir Taheri writes for the New York Post. His latest book, The Persian Night: Iran Under the Khomeinist Revolution, is due out next month. Feedback editorialdirector@familysecuritymatters.org.
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