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Five Sept. 11 Suspects to Face Trial in New York

The Obama administration has announced it will try 9-11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and other 9-11 Gitmo detainees in a civilian federal court in New York, allowing them the protections of the U.S. Constitution even though they are not U.S. citizens.

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Four Radical Chinese Muslims Transferred to Bermuda

Four Chinese Uighers (radical Chinese Muslims) were recently transferred to Bermuda. Do you think it's a good idea to release Gitmo detainees to idyllic vacation retreats?

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June 24, 2008

Exclusive: Understanding Chechnya: The Bottom Line

Tom Ordeman, Jr.

Following the wars in the Caucasus, and the resulting terrorist violence against Russian civilian targets, Vladimir Putin's government began dealing with the issue in a way quite familiar to Russians: political manipulation. While the complexity of the political posturing between the Russian Federal government and the Chechen government is nothing on the scale of Northern Ireland or post-war Iraq, the end result was Chechen leader Achmad Kadyrov allying with the Russian government and becoming Chechen president in October of 2003. He was assassinated in May of 2004, eventually to be replaced by his son Ramzan. Ramzan Kadyrov, currently aged 32, continues to hold power in Chechnya to this day. Meanwhile, most of the prominent leaders of the Chechen insurgency have been killed by Russian security forces.

So, why should Americans care about a contested piece of Russia, thousands of miles away? There are several reasons.

First and foremost, and this should be more important to Americans than it has been in the past: Chechnya has oil. Chechnya's mineral wealth probably doesn't extend to the point of solving America's energy needs - that will be addressed in an upcoming article - but it has enough oil to figure into Russia's energy policy. Students of the Cold War may remember that an integral part of President Ronald Reagan's strategy for forcing the collapse of the Soviet Empire was working to slash oil prices. This eliminated the major source of Soviet income by dramatically reducing the amount of hard currency the Soviet Union could produce through international energy sales; coupled with the Strategic Defense Initiative, the Soviet Union was unable to keep up economically, making its implosion a foregone conclusion.

Nearly 20 years later, oil prices have exceeded Carter-era levels, and energy sales are still an integral part of Russia's foreign and domestic policies. Russia's major exports are military hardware, oil, and natural gas. As a result of high oil prices and questionable global supplies, Russia has gained both economic and diplomatic leverage, particularly with respect to the European nations that receive its energy exports. On several occasions, Russia has made the news by - pardon the pun - holding nations formerly in its orbit over a barrel through price-gouging. This has included actual cessation of delivery. Chechen oil is part of this policy.

The issue of Chechnya has also served as an indicator of the political situation within Russia. For a number of years, dissident writer Anna Politkovskaya opposed the wars in Chechnya and wrote vehemently against Vladimir Putin's role in abuses against the Chechens. Politkovskaya was found in the elevator of her apartment block in Moscow in October of 2006, dead from a gunshot wound. Multiple accusations were leveled at the Russian government, including those from former FSB agent Alexander Litvinenko. For his trouble, Litvinenko died in a London hospital of Polonium poisoning in November of 2007. Like Polikovskaya, Litvinenko is widely believed to have been killed by order of the Russian government.

Chechnya's status also plays into Russia's diplomatic strategies in such organizations as the United Nations. Those who pay attention to the Balkans, for example, might have noticed harsh language from Russia over Kosovo's recent independence declaration from Serbia. Russia has had a long relationship with Serbia, particularly from the days of communist Yugoslavia; but another element of this resistance from Russia was the precedent it set. Particularly in high profile situations like Kosovo, Russia can be expected to oppose secession at every turn. This makes Russia's impact on international politics both predictable and troubling. Russia does not want to see successful secession movements because that sets a precedent for continued secession attempts by the Chechens.

The issue of Chechnya may also influence Russia's willingness to support Iran's nuclear program. Iran is known for supporting terrorism throughout the Middle East and South Asia, but their support for the Chechens is questionable. Could it be that Russia supplies Iran with nuclear fuel and diplomatic support in exchange for an Iranian moratorium on support for Chechen rebels? The situation probably isn't quite that cut and dried, but the prospect of Russia and Iran holding one another by the respective throats with respect to Chechnya and nuclear proliferation isn't entirely out of the realm of possibility. This is likely to be at least one factor in the relationship between the two countries.

The Chechen Wars can also serve as a sort of learning lab for students of irregular and urban warfare, counterterrorism, and counterinsurgency operations. The New Years Eve 1994 invasion of Grozny was a textbook lesson in how not to prosecute an urban operation against insurgents. It was also a prominent display of weapons, tactics, and procedures perpetrated by adherents of irregular warfare, and of how conditions set by conventional units can allow insurgent tactics to succeed. The Department of Defense has made some effort to study Russia's failures against the Chechen militants in the First Chechen War, and their subsequent successes. Important lessons and concepts can be derived from studying this event of modern warfare.

Most troubling about the Chechens is their possible connection to international terrorism. The terrorist acts they've committed against Russian targets notwithstanding, there has been great speculation with respect to Chechen ties to the various terror fronts. Allegations of Chechen involvement in both Iraq and Afghanistan have abounded, although open source evidence for this is difficult to come by. Chechens are believed to have formed the core of al Qaeda at one point, and some believe that the Chechens passed on their experience from wars against Russia to insurgents in both theaters. This institutional knowledge is likely to be invaluable to insurgents of the world, and dangerous to those against whom terrorists fight.

While the majority of Chechens are Sunni, Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov is Sufi, and Chechnya is experiencing a sort of Sufi revival. Some pundits believe that Sunnis refuse to collaborate with Shia (and vice versa), but Iranian support for both Hamas and the Taliban make that argument a tenuous one at best. What this means with respect to Chechen involvement in global terrorism remains open for debate. Like the Taliban, al Qaeda in Iraq, al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, and any number of other allied groups have shown, most al Qaeda affiliates join the nefarious terrorist network in order to receive assistance in their own local conflicts. Unlike coalition troops, Afghans have not flocked to Iraq, or vice versa. Whether Chechens have found themselves taking up arms against Western troops or not, the possibility that they have contributed to al Qaeda as an institution cannot be easily dismissed.

In the mean time, violence in Chechnya has calmed, and President Kadyrov administers Chechnya with an iron grip while Russia exploits Chechnya's mineral wealth. Chechens may or may not be direct players in America's war on international terrorism; but by impacting the foreign policy of UN Security Council veto-wielding Russia, understanding Chechnya remains an important piece in the puzzle that is the international security situation.

Family Security Matters Contributing Editor Tom Ordeman, Jr. is a technical writer for a major defense contractor in Hampton Roads, Virginia. Feedback: editorialdirector@familysecuritymatters.org.

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