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October 2, 2009
Clear and Present Danger
After a momentous week of unveiling Iran's second nuclear site, which confirmed Iran’s intention to disperse and protect non-civilian nuclear development; coupled with, over the weekend, Iran’s ballistic missile launches from 90 miles to 1,200 miles, provides close examination of President Obama's new direction in our nation's missile defense.
Iran has not invested in developing or deploying large scale aircraft, further demonstrating its intent to project power beyond its borders with ballistic missiles, and progressing down an aggressive path to become a new nuclear power that will threaten and deter its national security interests accordingly. The overall intelligence assessment of Iran has not changed from previous National Intelligence Estimates of years past, as Iran steadily maintains its plan to have ballistic capability by 2015, or earlier, to strike Europe and the United States.
President Obama's new missile defense architecture has its core component of Aegis Ashore (land-based SM3) planned to be deployed at the earliest by 2018 and a long range SM3 Block II deployed missile to protect the US and Europe from long range missiles by 2020. The previous Administration missile defense plan had deployments in place to protect Europe and the U.S. by 2015, three to five years earlier than the current plan. Betting the security of our nation, our 80,000 deployed men and women in Europe and our allies to be unprotected and not harmed or threatened by Iran, this Administration is relying on a shift in their perception of an intelligence estimate by the Department of Defense that Iran has slowed down its development and deployment of ballistic missiles. Our nation will put forward an estimated minimum of 3.5 billion to 4 billion U.S. tax dollars – and another 1 billion dollars if you include the cost of the Aegis ships – for a total of around 5 billion U.S. tax dollars to protect our troops, allies and friends in Europe.
For the state of Israel, the ballistic missile threat from Iran is here today as demonstrated by the Iranian missiles fired this weekend that went beyond the range of Israel. Added to this reality, the two Iranian nuclear sites hidden and well protected deep underground proposes an excruciating national security issue for Israel and for the Middle East region. If Israel is not protected nor has adequate missile defense to prevent zero leakage from ballistic missiles on its major cities, it will be provoked to unilaterally protect itself and use pre-emptive military action. This effort becomes considerably challenged when the Iranian nuclear facilities are heavily fortified underground. In that case, bunker buster bombs and air re-fuelers for Israel aircraft have to be provided by the United States with President Obama's permission as well as the potential of a retaliatory ballistic missile strike by Iran whether Israel succeeds or not.
Iran has not invested in developing or deploying large scale aircraft, further demonstrating its intent to project power beyond its borders with ballistic missiles, and progressing down an aggressive path to become a new nuclear power that will threaten and deter its national security interests accordingly. The overall intelligence assessment of Iran has not changed from previous National Intelligence Estimates of years past, as Iran steadily maintains its plan to have ballistic capability by 2015, or earlier, to strike Europe and the United States.
President Obama's new missile defense architecture has its core component of Aegis Ashore (land-based SM3) planned to be deployed at the earliest by 2018 and a long range SM3 Block II deployed missile to protect the US and Europe from long range missiles by 2020. The previous Administration missile defense plan had deployments in place to protect Europe and the U.S. by 2015, three to five years earlier than the current plan. Betting the security of our nation, our 80,000 deployed men and women in Europe and our allies to be unprotected and not harmed or threatened by Iran, this Administration is relying on a shift in their perception of an intelligence estimate by the Department of Defense that Iran has slowed down its development and deployment of ballistic missiles. Our nation will put forward an estimated minimum of 3.5 billion to 4 billion U.S. tax dollars – and another 1 billion dollars if you include the cost of the Aegis ships – for a total of around 5 billion U.S. tax dollars to protect our troops, allies and friends in Europe.
For the state of Israel, the ballistic missile threat from Iran is here today as demonstrated by the Iranian missiles fired this weekend that went beyond the range of Israel. Added to this reality, the two Iranian nuclear sites hidden and well protected deep underground proposes an excruciating national security issue for Israel and for the Middle East region. If Israel is not protected nor has adequate missile defense to prevent zero leakage from ballistic missiles on its major cities, it will be provoked to unilaterally protect itself and use pre-emptive military action. This effort becomes considerably challenged when the Iranian nuclear facilities are heavily fortified underground. In that case, bunker buster bombs and air re-fuelers for Israel aircraft have to be provided by the United States with President Obama's permission as well as the potential of a retaliatory ballistic missile strike by Iran whether Israel succeeds or not.
Israel today does not have the missile defense protection it needs as it is reliant on antiquated explosive technology in its Arrow program and does not have midcourse interceptors to provide a layered defense that would give an additional option to the government there. It is paramount that the United States provides elements of our current missile defense systems such as the Patriot, the THAAD, the Aegis and the future Aegis Ashore to Israel as well as support Israel's own domestic developments of missile defense as a first priority in President Obama's new missile defense architecture.
This Administration not only needs to support in resources all of what it has announced, President Obama needs to accelerate with urgency its development and deployment of his new missile defense architecture to meet the threat, or face the grave consequences of putting Israel, our troops, our allies and our nation at high and unnecessary risk.
This is too high a gamble to bet the national security of our nation and others with a positive diplomatic outcome that has a history of failures regarding US and International persuasion and influence on the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Smoke and mirrors, political posturing and appeasement are not the right course of action to gain the confidence level we need to protect our people and those of the world from a real and present danger.
This Administration not only needs to support in resources all of what it has announced, President Obama needs to accelerate with urgency its development and deployment of his new missile defense architecture to meet the threat, or face the grave consequences of putting Israel, our troops, our allies and our nation at high and unnecessary risk.
This is too high a gamble to bet the national security of our nation and others with a positive diplomatic outcome that has a history of failures regarding US and International persuasion and influence on the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Smoke and mirrors, political posturing and appeasement are not the right course of action to gain the confidence level we need to protect our people and those of the world from a real and present danger.
Iran’s missile arsenal:
SAJJIL 1 and 2:
The Sajjil 2 is Iran's most advanced two-stage, surface-to-surface missile. It is powered entirely by solid-fuel, which increases the weapon's accuracy. The missile has a potential range of 1,560 miles (2,510 kilometers), putting Israel, parts of southeastern Europe and U.S. bases in the Middle East within range.
The Sajjil 2 is equipped with an improved guidance package compared with the Sajjil 1, and can be launched in a matter of minutes. Experts say the Sajjil-2 is more accurate than Shahab missiles and its navigation system is more advanced.
SHAHAB-3:
The medium-range ballistic missile can strike targets within a radius of 800 miles (1,300 kilometers). The model is derived from the North Korean No-dong missile and is considered to have a low accuracy rate.
Shahab means "meteor" or "shooting star" in Farsi.
SHAHAB-3A:
Variant of the Shahab-3 model, but lighter and with a range of 1,110 miles (1,800 kilometers).
SHAHAB-3B:
The liquid-fueled Shahab-3B has a range of 1,500 miles (2,500 kilometers), putting Israel, Turkey and U.S. forces stationed in the Middle East within striking distance.
SHAHAB-2:
The single-stage, liquid-fuel missile is said to have a range of 310 miles (500 kilometers). Iran purchased the weapon from North Korea in the early 1990s. Also known as the Scud-C.
ZELZAL:
A short-range, solid-fuel missile. Versions of the Zelzal, which means "earthquake" in Farsi, have ranges of 130-185 miles (210-300 kilometers).
FATEH:
One of Iran's short-range missiles, the solid-fuel Fateh can strike targets up to 120 miles (193 kilometers) away.
Fateh means "conqueror" in both Farsi and Arabic.
TONDAR 69:
Iran has had the Chinese-manufactured Tondar in its arsenal for many years. It is a solid-fueled missile with a range of about 93 miles (150 kilometers).
Tondar means "thunder" in Farsi.
SAJJIL 1 and 2:
The Sajjil 2 is Iran's most advanced two-stage, surface-to-surface missile. It is powered entirely by solid-fuel, which increases the weapon's accuracy. The missile has a potential range of 1,560 miles (2,510 kilometers), putting Israel, parts of southeastern Europe and U.S. bases in the Middle East within range.
The Sajjil 2 is equipped with an improved guidance package compared with the Sajjil 1, and can be launched in a matter of minutes. Experts say the Sajjil-2 is more accurate than Shahab missiles and its navigation system is more advanced.
SHAHAB-3:
The medium-range ballistic missile can strike targets within a radius of 800 miles (1,300 kilometers). The model is derived from the North Korean No-dong missile and is considered to have a low accuracy rate.
Shahab means "meteor" or "shooting star" in Farsi.
SHAHAB-3A:
Variant of the Shahab-3 model, but lighter and with a range of 1,110 miles (1,800 kilometers).
SHAHAB-3B:
The liquid-fueled Shahab-3B has a range of 1,500 miles (2,500 kilometers), putting Israel, Turkey and U.S. forces stationed in the Middle East within striking distance.
SHAHAB-2:
The single-stage, liquid-fuel missile is said to have a range of 310 miles (500 kilometers). Iran purchased the weapon from North Korea in the early 1990s. Also known as the Scud-C.
ZELZAL:
A short-range, solid-fuel missile. Versions of the Zelzal, which means "earthquake" in Farsi, have ranges of 130-185 miles (210-300 kilometers).
FATEH:
One of Iran's short-range missiles, the solid-fuel Fateh can strike targets up to 120 miles (193 kilometers) away.
Fateh means "conqueror" in both Farsi and Arabic.
TONDAR 69:
Iran has had the Chinese-manufactured Tondar in its arsenal for many years. It is a solid-fueled missile with a range of about 93 miles (150 kilometers).
Tondar means "thunder" in Farsi.
FamilySecurityMatters.org Contributing Editor Riki Ellison is Founder and President of the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance (MDAA), whose mission is to help make the world safer by encouraging the development of a missile defense system that would protect against ballistic missiles of all ranges.
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