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October 6, 2009
Sanctions May Not Faze Iran
While some are touting “progress” at the just-concluded talks with Iran in Geneva last week over its nuclear program, we’re nowhere near the end of this horror movie.
Getting access to Iran’s new nuclear facility doesn’t address the problem of Tehran’s old nuclear facilities – and exporting some of its enriched uranium for processing doesn’t capture it all.
Not to mention the devil’s in the details of any final agreement to do any of this.
Meaning? The United States will at some point make a last-gasp effort to lead another, more stringent sanctions regime to prevent Iran from joining the once-exclusive nuclear club.
Good luck storming that castle.
Sure, sanctions may be the only non-military way for wrenching Iran from its nuclear course, but we shouldn’t delude ourselves that it will be easy - or successful.
The major powers have to get with the program. That’ll be a problem.
Europe may be swayable. In fact, France’s Nicolas Sarkozy was more exercised about the news of Iran’s previously-undeclared nuclear facility at the G-20 than was President Barack Obama.
But despite all the tough rhetoric over Tehran’s nuclear program since it was uncovered in 2003, Europe – especially Germany and France – is still a huge trader with Iran.
But the country receiving the least attention on this issue, but of equal importance, is China. No punitive sanctions regime will fly without having Beijing onboard, too.
Why? In addition to being a UN Security Council member with veto rights, China, with its growing economic, political and military might, has become a major player in the Middle East.
As the world’s second-largest consumer of energy, China is particularly interested in access to the region’s oil and gas. Indeed, Tehran is Beijing’s second-largest oil supplier and Chinese energy firms already have at least $10 billion invested in the Iranian oil/gas sector. That may be only the start.
Like Russia, China also sells advanced weapons to Iran, which could serve as a lever of influence in getting Tehran to inch back from the nuclear abyss.
But instead, many believe China will fill any political, economic or military gaps left by the major powers.
What does this mean for the Obama administration? They’d better have a Plan B to sanctions if they’ve any expectation of preventing Iran from joining the Mushroom Cloud Club.
FamilySecurityMatters.org Contributing Editor Peter Brookes is a Senior Fellow for National Security Affairs at the Heritage Foundation and is a member of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission.
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