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July 1, 2008

Exclusive: French White Paper: Ambitions Exceed Means

William R. Hawkins

On June 17, France published a new White Paper on defense and national security, the first such paper since 1994. It contains both good news and bad news from an American perspective.

The good news first: The paper opens by noting that during the 15 years since the last assessment, "the world has radically changed. The post-Cold War era is over. Globalization now structures international relations." Paris does not use the term "globalization" the naive way it has been used in the United States, as denoting a new era of peace and progress. On the contrary, the paper warns, "Jihadism-inspired terrorism aims directly at France and Europe, which are in a situation of greater direct vulnerability. As we look to the 2025 horizon, France and Europe will fall within the range of ballistic missiles developed by new powers; new risks have appeared." What Paris means by the term is "security interests are appraised globally" because threats can come from anywhere. The paper thus starts from a realistic perspective.

Also good news is the declaration "that France should fully rejoin NATO" with the proviso that it "must retain complete independence of nuclear forces and freedom to make its own decisions to act." President Nicholas Sarkozy's desire to rejoin NATO is considered part of his effort to improve relations with America after his predecessor, Jacques Chirac, did so much to poison relations by opposing the U.S. at the United Nations over the Iraq War.

Unfortunately, France will be bringing less to NATO. Sarkozy intends to cut 54,000 military and civilian defense jobs, in particular ground combat troops. French plans for an operational ground force of only 88,000 soldiers, from which it could project a force of 30,000 for a year's commitment, backed by air and naval units. However, the air assets are envisioned to consist of only 70 warplanes for overseas deployment, with the other 230 combat aircraft of the combined Air Force and Navy air fleet based at home.

Paris envisions being part of a future European Union expeditionary force of 60,000. The 27 member countries of the EU have 500 million people and an aggregate economy larger than the United States. Yet, its goal is only to be able to send overseas an army less than half the size of what the U.S. has had deployed in Iraq for the last five years. This is not a serious effort.

There are European troops in Afghanistan, which is officially a NATO operation. France has the seventh largest contingent, about 1,700 soldiers, but they stay mainly in the capital Kabul. The Germans have the largest continental contingent, about 3,400 troops, but they are deployed in the north, far away from the front lines along the Pakistan border in the south. The front line is manned by American, British, Canadian, Australian and Dutch troops, who make up three-quarters of all forces serving in the country. The U.S. is sending another 3,200 Marines to reinforce the summer campaign because the Europeans cannot come up with additional troops.

Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, told students at the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies in Germany June 26th that Afghanistan "is at the heart of NATO right now....I believe that whether NATO is going to be relevant in the future is tied directly to a positive outcome in Afghanistan." But the facts on the ground would indicate that the fight is being carried on by the heirs of the British Empire rather than by NATO.

French officers quoted in Defense News criticized the new French plan, saying the country will be relegated to the second tier of military powers "in the same division as Italy," and that Britain will be Europe's military leader (as well as being America's closest ally). Defense Minister Herve Morin replied on June 19th, "France will remain one of the world's four big military powers" with the U.S., Russia and Britain. But Morin seems to have forgotten China, and such rogue states as Iran and North Korea also have many more men in uniform.

China is not a French concern. The geographical areas laid out in the white paper upon which Paris will focus are the North Atlantic, Mediterranean, Africa, and the Middle East out into the Indian Ocean. Though the paper notes that "Asia is rising in importance," it is beyond France's security horizon. This explains Paris' lobbying within the EU to lift the embargo on arms sales to China. Beijing means a market for French industry without any risk that the weapons sold will be used against French forces. The U.S., in contrast, has been lobbying hard against European arms sales to China because Washington knows where they will be aimed.

The white paper claims "Nuclear attack submarines [SSN] carrying cruise missiles are a priority. Due to their stealth and virtually unlimited range, they represent versatile strategic systems." Yet, France only plans to have six of these. It will also have one carrier group, 18 frigates (a class of warships smaller than destroyers) and "one or two" amphibious groups. A century ago, on the eve of World War I, France had 21 battleships, 15 cruisers, 43 destroyers and 15 submarines deployed in the Mediterranean. France is a considerably richer country now than then, but despite Morin's claim, it can no longer be considered a first class power. It has not devoted its wealth to maintaining that rank.

It still wants to amass wealth, however, through industry and trade. Paris knows that due to the massive cuts in defense spending and force levels across Europe since the end of the Cold War, "Individual European countries can no longer master every technology and capability at the national level. France must retain its areas of sovereignty, concentrated on the capability necessary for the maintenance of the strategic and political autonomy of the nation: nuclear deterrence; ballistic missiles; SSNs; and cyber-security are amongst the priorities. As regards the other technologies and capacities that it may wish to acquire, France believes that the European framework must be privileged: combat aircraft, drones, cruise missiles, satellites, electronic components etc., although procurement policy must include acquisitions on the world market."

The term "privileged" is key. It means a bias to "Buy European" in defense contracting. The "etc." in the list of high-end systems to be covered by this policy could be nearly limitless. International industrial rivalry is always an important subject. It is particularly timely at the moment, given the ongoing dispute over whether the U.S. Air Force should buy a partially French built A330 Airbus for its new $35 billion air refueling tanker program, instead of a Boeing 767-based tanker. If European firms are to be "privileged" within the EU, shouldn't American firms be privileged within the U.S.?

The defense industry section is within the chapter headed "European Ambition." There is also a chapter on "Industrial and Technological Priorities to 2025," with each section ending with "France will support the emergence of an integrated European industrial capability for...[fill in the blank]," or similar wording. It makes perfect sense on both sides of the Atlantic to limit any vulnerability that comes from being dependent on foreign sources for the means of national security. The problem for the Europeans is whether they can maintain a first-class defense industrial base when their force levels and equipment needs are so low.

The deterioration of the defense industrial base makes it very difficult to reconstitute military forces in a timely fashion. So while French and NATO units can play a useful role as auxiliaries to American forces in small-scale operations, continental Europe cannot be depended upon to act like a major power in world affairs for the foreseeable future.

Family Security Matters Contributing Editor William Hawkins is Senior Fellow for National Security Studies at the U.S. Business and Industry Council in Washington, DC. E-mail him at HawkinsUSA@aol.com.

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