February 9, 2010
Israeli and Middle East Options
Maj. Gen. Paul E. Vallely, US Army (Ret)
On 9/11, Americans were attacked and the World Trade Center’s destroyed along with the deaths of almost 3,000 innocents in New York, Washington D.C. and over the fields of Western Pennsylvania. It was pre-emptive attack and a horrific unthinkable act that arose from great and thorough planning of al Qaeda and its radical Islamists followers. At this point in history, Israel is facing such a dilemma as it seriously contemplates the consequences of a threatened nuclear/missile and ground attack from Iran and her proxies. Does Israel act preemptively to potentially protect its territory and six million citizens and potentially precipitate a full-on regional conflict or anxiously wait while Iran inches closer to nuclear launch capabilities and follows through with its threats of "Death to Israel?"
The media has been fraught with reports about Israel's action to this Iranian attack that appears more real each day in passing. Israel does not require a green light from the U.S. as a sovereign nation and “needs to do what it has to do.” It is now a political decision for Benjamin Netanyahu and his government. With the recent successful medium-range ballistic missile test and claims of 5,000 uranium-enrichment centrifuges and additional facilities, Ahmadinejad has brought the situation to a critical tipping point as the rest of the world (to include the U.S.) sits, appeases and threatens more sanctions and provides almost no support to the Iranian Opposition. A Chamberlain-type approach historically spells disaster.
It is obvious that Iran is not open to negotiation or compromise. The risk appears to have elevated since Iran's recent missile tests and their build-up of Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon. Israel has been criticized for its failed efforts during Hezbollah's war against Israel in 2006 and the Gaza withdrawal. The fact is that Hezbollah now has three times the number of missiles it possessed during the 2006 war and now has over 60,000 trained ground combat foot soldiers capable of penetrating the northern border into Israel. Intelligence also is reporting that Iran’s plan is to neutralize all Israel air bases by torrential missile attacks from Southern Lebanon. Syria has reportedly shipped Fateh-110 missiles to Hezbollah, able to destroy Israeli cities and the air fields. The secret transfer of the mobile surface-to-surface Syrian-made Fateh-110 (range 250km) missile to Hezbollah sparked the prediction Friday, February 5th, from an unnamed U.S. official that cross-border arms smuggling from Syria into Lebanon outside state control was occurring. Military sources report that Israel warned Syria through at least two diplomatic channels against Hezbollah of having and using these lethal weapons, which are capable of reaching almost every Israel city.
How should Israel deter an Iran, both from launching direct missile attacks and from dispersing nuclear assets from the Iran homeland and its terrorist proxies? There are obvious and real “fingerprints” all over the wall that necessitates action. This is especially significant because Ahmadinejad states that soon there will be a world without the United States and Israel. Coupled with his regular pronouncements to wipe Israel off the face of the earth, this sends serious nuclear alarm signals that must be ignored.
A nuclear-armed Iran, whose president regularly calls for the annihilation of Israel, is an intolerable threat to the world and existence of the Jewish state. There is no quarter for acceptance of an Iranian bomb, which could set in motion regional proliferation to come as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey and Syria could potentially acquire nuclear capabilities. The geopolitical and economic consequences of an attack, although necessary for self-preservation, would be dire. Iran could retaliate by escalating attacks on U.S. military forces in Iraq and blocking the Strait of Hormuz and thus the flow of 25 percent of the world's oil. It could also decrease oil production and raise prices, ultimately leading to a limited global recession and unleash its proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas, in the U.S., Lebanon and Gaza. The result could be a large-scale regional conflict. However, a well-thought out strategy articulated and executed by the U.S. and Israel would serve a strong deterrence. To be sure, it is not a simple or reassuring world. Strategic doctrine is always a complex matter, and any improved U.S. plan will have to be creative as well as comprehensive. If, for any reason, Iran is permitted to "go nuclear," our re-fashioned doctrine will certainly have to identify viable options for coexistence with that unpredictable country. In turn, these options will require enemy perceptions of persuasive American power and of a corresponding American willingness to actually use this power.
According to some reports, the Israeli Air Force has conducted secret training missions to prepare for a future attack which will be aided by the X-band radar system, capable of intercepting Iran's newly tested medium-range ballistic missiles, recently installed by U.S. military personnel. If Israel perceives that time is running out on Iran, it may be forced to muster the political will to defend itself from a nuclear nightmare that Ahmadinejad has repeatedly promised. We believe Iran is now nuclear capable to some degree.
America's President seems to naïvely think that the way to a world without nuclear weapons is going to happen in our lifetime. Perhaps, in the best of all possible worlds, all countries could actually turn back the clock, and impose effective limits on the always-evolving technologies of destruction. But we do not yet live in such a world, and the obvious incapacity to implement any real denuclearization means that (however reluctantly) we shall still have to reconcile our own national security with expanding nuclear proliferation. What option will Israel choose and what will their strategy be? And for that matter, what will the United States and other responsible nations do?
Sadly, Major General Vallely offered no recommendation as to how the US or Israel might or should deal with a nascent nuclear Iran; none that I could see.
posted by: Steve Klein
Tuesday, February 9, 2010 at 08:41 AM
I think it would be a big mistake to outline our plan (if we get one from the novice "president".) Not even playing poker to you tell your opponent what you plan to do. Since the barbaric Ahmadenen-nobrain believes he will sending his countrymen to paradise even if retaliation occurs, the effective options are very difficult.
posted by: Info Warrior
Tuesday, February 9, 2010 at 12:14 AM
I see Iran as a dangerous animal. If a dangerous animal lived in my backyard I would destroy this entity and I would seek no permission from anyone.
I am a christin but if Israel decides to destroy Iran I back them 100 percent.
posted by: curtis kruse
Tuesday, February 9, 2010 at 12:31 AM
Mr. Vallely's article was right on the money and of course there are no easy answers. Even if Israel is forced to unilaterally take on Iran to rightfully defend herself, she will bear the blame for whatever consequences may follow. We've come a long way since Israel was praised for her accomplishments in the Six-Days War. Those days are over.
posted by: Joe Finkelstein
Tuesday, February 9, 2010 at 01:00 PM
i think islreal is going to burn to thr ground
posted by: peai
Tuesday, February 9, 2010 at 06:30 PM
Sadly, Maj. Gen.Paul E. Vallely's article does not leave Israel much choice. What is Israel waiting for?
They would be damned if they attack and would be damned if they don't. They should do what is in the national interest, but not what would please the Arab and the Muslim world.
posted by: Atta Kojo Owusu
Tuesday, February 9, 2010 at 09:02 PM
What doesn't the rest of the world understand. Israel has been under attack for decades "in our time",with annillation as the end game.
Since the barbaric Ahmadenen-nobrain has been quoted again and again ,as to wipeing Israel off the face of the earth ( Read between the lines," as soon as we have nuclear weapons" ) Does the rest of the world expect the Israelies to sit and wait,while the rest of the world plays lip service to what is /and has been a very real threat to Israels very existance. Talk of sanctions/and actual sanctions be damned. Iran has ignored the rest of the world,thumbed their nose at all attempts to negociate. Either do something positive and significant or get out of the way and let Israel handle their own problem without condemnation . The rest of the world, by allowing Iran to ignore all attempts at negociation,while moving FWD with its' nuclear capabilities,has put Israel between "A Rock and a hard place" A position that just may be too much of a disadvantage for Israel to over come without help. All because Israel bowed to the wishes of the US and the world at large and never pursued to the end, military attacks upon their counrty. This is shameful that such a travesty has been allowed to perpetuate itself,lip service while one aggressive country is allowed to grow stronger ,and develope nuclear weapons, avowing the annillation of an overly patient Israel
posted by: Don Cartmill
Wednesday, February 10, 2010 at 00:16 AM
