HOME :: PUBLICATIONS :: Exclusive: A Looming Policy Disaster of Titanic Proportions, by JAMES JAY CARAFANO, PHD, PRESIDENTIAL POLICY: DOES IT MAKE THE GRADE?

Exclusive: A Looming Policy Disaster of Titanic Proportions

by JAMES JAY CARAFANO, PHD, PRESIDENTIAL POLICY: DOES IT MAKE THE GRADE? April 6, 2010
The White House Iran policy is sinking faster than the Titanic. Indeed, at this rate the bumper sticker “Obama’s Iran Policy,” could supplant “Titanic” as the universal metaphor for disaster.
Last week the president’s policy looked particularly bad. Clearly, the White House effort to engage regime in Tehran got a firm rebuttal from Iranian President Ahmadinejad. In a recent speech he literally mocked Obama’s diplomacy. “What changed? Your sanctions were lifted? The adverse propaganda was stopped? The pressure was alleviated? Did you change your attitude in Iraq, Afghanistan and Palestine?” He then added that U.S. threats of sanctions made him more determined to proceed with the country’s nuclear program. "You should know that the more hostile you are, the stronger an incentive our people will have, it will double," he said.
The White House tried to save face by arguing it had to try the friendship route first, to show other countries how different they were from the Bush administration and to get the UN Security Council on board for tougher sanctions. Sadly, that looks like little more than wishful thinking. Real sanctions look pretty unlikely. 
Real sanctions in the UN Security Council would require the support of China. That does not look like something that is going to happen. To underscore that point, last week Tehran dispatched a senior diplomat to Beijing. The Iranian official declared the “wrong policies” adopted by the world powers have paved the ground for greater bilateral ties between Tehran and Beijing.
If sanctions happen at all, they are likely to be nothing more than symbolic. No doubt if that happens, Washington will declare a win. That victory lap will not be earned according Heritage Middle East expert Jim Phillips. He wrote recently that “[s]ome have argued that such watered-down sanctions have symbolic importance in isolating Iran. But such symbolic wrist slaps are unlikely to impress Iran’s thuggish regime. And the glacial pace of negotiations at the UN Security Council means that any actions taken are likely to be too little, too late. Iran has made steady progress on its nuclear program and will amass enough low enriched uranium by late July to arm a nuclear weapon if it is enriched to higher levels.”
President Obama’s grade for this week is “F” for failing to admit that his Iran policy is failing.
FamilySecurityMatters.org Contributing Editor James Jay Carafano, Ph.D., is a leading expert in defense affairs, intelligence, military operations and strategy, and homeland security at the Heritage Foundation.
 

James Carafano is a leading expert in defense affairs, intelligence, military operations and strategy, and homeland security at The Heritage Foundation. He was an Assistant Professor at the U.S. Military Academy in West Point, N.Y., and fleet professor at the U.S. Naval War College. Carafano is the author of several military history books and studies. Carafano also is the coauthor of Winning the Long War: Lessons from the Cold War for Defeating Terrorism and Preserving Freedom; coauthor of the text book, Homeland Security published by McGraw-Hill; and the principal author of Emergency Responders: Drastically Underfunded, Dangerously Unprepared. He has testified before the U.S. Congress and has provided commentary for ABC, BBC, CBS, CNBC, CNN, C-SPAN, Fox News, MSNBC, NBC, SkyNews, PBS, National Public Radio, the History Channel, Voice of America, Al Jazeera, Telemundo, Al Arabiya and Australian, Austrian, Canadian, French, Greek, Hong Kong, Irish, Japanese, Portuguese, and Spanish television. His editorials have appeared in newspapers nationwide including The Baltimore Sun, The Boston Globe, The New York Post, Philadelphia Inquirer, USA Today and The Washington Times. Carafano is a member of the National Academy's Board on Army Science and Technology, the Department of the Army Historical Advisory Committee, and is a Senior Fellow at the George Washington University's Homeland Security Policy Institute.

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