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July 18, 2008
Our National Security: Are the Candidates Up to the Task?
Colonel Kenneth Allard (US Army, ret.)
On Tuesday we finally remembered to inquire about our own security.
As befits their respective backgrounds, John McCain was more convincing as the candidates talked about national security and what each would do as President. McCain gets the nod whenever Americans are asked which candidate is better suited to command American armed forces. But Barack Obama has to smile remembering his trump issue: a faltering economy historically elects Democrats.
And that's the rub: because it seems as if each of these guys understands no more than 50% of the basic national security equation. Listen for five minutes to what passes for their campaign rhetoric and you can be forgiven for thinking that the issue is either guns or butter. In reality it is both: the classic balance of state power in which military force is simply the violent expression of economics.
Let's begin with Obama, who approaches the issues of war and peace with the trained eye one naturally expects from a community organizer turned legislator. He now tacitly concedes that basic premises about the war which propelled the Democrats to victory in 2006 have been overturned by stark new facts. To quote the AP dispatch carried by this paper's Tuesday editions: "...But the debate for now is no longer about whether the country is heading toward civil war or already in one. Rather it is about whether Iraq has turned a corner toward stability..." Bottom line: the surge has succeeded brilliantly even while the Democrats invested heavily in defeat.
What Obama never seems to grasp is that success in one theater of conflict means that networked adversaries will simply apply pressure elsewhere. Are you making things hot for al Qaeda in Iraq? Then don't be surprised when their Taliban allies come knocking again at the back door to Afghanistan, thoughtfully left open by Pakistan's intelligence services. The Iranians have been similarly flexible but resolutely single-minded, balancing their quiet quest for nuclear weapons against likely Western responses. Think that Hitler's step-children will now be seduced through better negotiating skills? Would similar tactics work with Chicago street gangs?
Problem is, we are currently committed to two major conflicts - without even considering the imponderables of a nuclear war involving Iran and Israel. And this is where McCain, despite his impressive national security credentials, could well lose the election on points - mortgage points and interest rate points, to be precise.
The backdrop to Tuesday's national security discussions were simultaneous appearances by President Bush and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, both intended to soothe the nation's worsening financial fears. It doesn't take many bank failures, or even doubts about the institutions underwriting our mortgages, before you shake the confidence of consumers who long ago forgot the meaning of business cycles and tough times. GOP maverick Pat Buchanan calls this a widening economic fault line with major political consequences, Wall Street Republicans becoming increasingly separated from Main Street Reagan Democrats.
At such moments, economists usually show up with soothing and pre-recorded assurances: This is only a short-term bump caused by higher energy prices but plentiful credit will return soon. San Antonio-based banker and businessman John Wallace begs to differ. An auditor who witnessed the 1980s savings and loan crisis, Wallace calls what is happening now a "perfect financial storm." Its underlying causes: a decade of unwise financial decisions by profit-hungry banks who ignored the basics of lending. "They never really verified who they were dealing with, much less their ability to repay."
Nor is the end anywhere in sight. Wallace points out that federal debts, bank deposit insurance and mortgage guarantees (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) now total $16.1 trillion, versus the $14 trillion annually produced by the U.S. economy. "If you were buying a home, and your financial obligations totaled more than your annual income, would even a loan shark be willing to lend you the money?"
Good question - and one worth pondering as we balance new security challenges against the costs of replacing worn-out equipment and relieving badly over-strained soldiers. Or, if we restore the nation's defenses only to see them repossessed.
FamilySecurityMatters.org Contributing Editor Col. (Ret) Ken Allard is a former NBC military analyst, the author of Warheads, and a columnist with the San Antonio Express-News. E-mail him at Warheads6@aol.com.
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