September 7, 2010
Red Tide Rising
Chet Nagle
During the past decade, politicians, economists and military analysts calculated that Communist China might be able to deny access to the western Pacific by 2025. Their calculations were wrong. China threw down the gauntlet this summer and claimed sovereignty over the seas from Vietnam to the Philippines, and from their Leizhou Peninsula to oil rich Borneo. While the Pentagon makes plans to further weaken our navy, Pacific trade routes slip under Chinese control, Asian allies drift toward Beijing, and freedom of the seas fades as American seapower declines.
As usual, the White House and the State Department have got it exactly wrong. Instead of building powerful peacekeeping forces, President Obama tried to buy off China by declaring the communists to be our “partners” and by offering military exchanges, visits by Chinese officers to sensitive facilities, and other gifts of military expertise and cooperation. The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, and the diversity-obsessed Chief of Naval Operations, Admiral Gary Roughead, cheerfully helped Beijing take full advantage of the White House policy of appeasement.
The ultimate intentions of our “partner” were revealed on 29 July, when Beijing ordered naval exercises with a command to “…soundly prepare for combat,” and then announced China has “indisputable sovereignty” over the 1.3 million-square-mile South China Sea. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was undoubtedly shocked that Beijing was neither interested in her idea of a code of conduct, nor impressed by President Obama’s incomprehensible policy of “soft power.” Playing his role in those bizarre initiatives, Admiral Mullen said he was only “curious” about China’s growing armory of powerful ships, submarines, satellites, missiles and aircraft. These days, with analysts calculating the Chinese navy will surpass the U.S. Navy by 2015, he admits he may be “concerned.”
Economists who viewed China as a Third World economy, dependent on exports and locked into buying ever more of the mountain of American debt, are now as befuddled as our politicians and admirals. China’s economy has surpassed Japan to become the world’s second largest, after the United States, and could be first by 2025. That should not be too difficult. With an annual growth rate topping 9% every year since 1978, compared to the sad efforts by the White House to lift U.S. growth back to 3%, China should blow past us long before then. Communists have less than transparent accounting systems, so the figures may be suspect, but what is not suspect is that China now uses more energy than any other nation in the world. They passed us four times faster than predicted. That means Chinese heavy industry and infrastructure are growing at breakneck speed, and will need to devour even more energy and raw materials. China is muscling up its military to be sure it gets what it wants, when it wants—no matter who objects.
Besides growing an economy resembling a metastasizing tumor, China is taking an aggressive stance in the areas of finance, foreign affairs, and offensive military capability.
· Dagong Global, China’s leading credit rating agency, downgraded US debt from AAA to AA and elevated China to an AA+ rating. After selling $35 billion of US bonds, China now holds less American debt than Japan. Beijing is bailing out of risky dollars and buying into sounder currencies.
· Over 10,000 Chinese ‘workers’ are in Pakistan “helping with flood relief.” In fact, they are digging mountain tunnels to build a safe route for China’s future energy supplies. On our side of the planet, Beijing is spending $5 billion widening the Panama Canal to ship raw materials from its projects in Africa and South America directly to China.
· Already budgeting for space warfare, cyberwar, and an army of 1.25 million, China will soon add aircraft carriers to its navy of 275 ships. Besides nuclear submarines, ships, and aircraft all equipped with anti-ship missiles, China will also test a ballistic missile that kills aircraft carriers 1,000 miles away. U.S. Navy access to Taiwan and the western Pacific is ending.
China is not only financially and militarily aggressive, it has choked off access to vital rare earth metals. The United States once had a domestic supply chain of these metals, from mine to refinery. No longer. China drastically undercut the world market price, our mines and smelters closed, and Beijing now produces 97% of the world supply. One month ago, China’s government cut rare earth export quotas by 72%. That was no small thing.
Rare earths bought from China like samarium and thulium are essential for the Abrams tank, the Hellfire missile, the Electric Drive Ship, the Aegis radar, and a myriad of other hi-tech defense and commercial items. Because Washington refused to understand that China has no intention of being our “partner,” we have been ambushed. It will take fifteen years to reopen domestic rare earth mines and refineries.
Are we doomed to drown in a rising Red Tide? Not yet. But there is much to do and very little time to do it. President Obama’s “soft power” policy is a dangerous folly, and a new Congress must use all means to end it. If they fail, a future President of the United States may be forced to bow to Chinese despots as well as Arab kings.
FamilySecurityMatters.org Contributing editor Chet Nagle is a Naval Academy graduate and Cold War carrier pilot who flew in the Cuban Missile Crisis. After a stint as a navy research officer, he joined International Security Affairs as a Pentagon civilian – then came defense and intelligence work, life abroad for 12 years as an agent for the CIA, and extensive time in Iran, Oman, and many other countries. Along the way, he graduated from the Georgetown University Law School and was the founding publisher of a geo-political magazine, The Journal of Defense & Diplomacy, read in over 20 countries and with a circulation of 26,000. At the end of his work in the Middle East, he was awarded the Order of Oman in that allied nation’s victory over communist Yemen; now, he writes and consults. He and his wife Dorothy live in Virginia.
Hi Chet,
Unfortunately, the actual threat from China is probably worse than you are stating. The communist government in China is very unstable and likely to crash within a few years. Before that happens we could see war either with Taiwan or America.
China suffers from a catastrophic problem - it must maintain economic growth to maintain a relatively stable society. If the growth rate is too low, or there is a recession, then things could come unglued. The reason for this is that there is no effect system to address citizen grievances.
In studying how complex systems collapse, we learn that many systems follow the power law: Economies, war, forests, sandpiles, earthquakes and a lot more. If there is system feedback then the power law probably applies.
Studying power law systems shows that the effort to maintain stability, suppressing small and intermediate collapses, actually forces the system onto an expressway to a super-critical collapse.
From the late 1880s for the next hundred years firefighters tried to put out every fire in Yellowstone National Park. For their efforts they experienced a fire in late 1980s that was 40 times bigger than Yellowstone had ever experienced before. Trying to maintain stability only causes much bigger crashes.
China is in the boat of trying to maintain a stable system. That means a big collapse is coming.
Want to know more? Follow me at http://www.1913intel.com
Check out these categories: China and Power Law.
posted by: Matt
Tuesday, September 7, 2010 at 02:03 PM
Matt & Chet,
As one of citizen fellows in China, I just want to say that I truly appreciated your so-called analysis regarding the current situation of China both of society as well as government. Yes, definitely, we all are facing quite a lot social problems in China nowadays despite of the fact that our Central Government did too much to improve the quality of all Chinese people. That's normal and inevitable to each nation if you are good enough to know the history of your nation! But do you think if your President Obama has ability to figure them out if he were leader of 1.3 billion population here? Can you guarantee each people of those 1.3 billion may enjoy one family reunion dinner together during the Eve of Chinese New Year every year??? If you can't why you Americans just would like to show off your incompetence everywhere you may reach to just let others start to be looking down upon all of you? Tell me why Ben Ladan just attacked Americans in your country instead of any other countries in Asia or EU since you always popularize your democracy in the world? It has come to my attention that you always want to take use of your "imagination" to assess others as your style, right? Want to know more bout how Chinese assess their own government? You should have come to China to see by your own FIRST!
posted by: Vincent
Tuesday, September 7, 2010 at 11:48 PM
