HOME :: PUBLICATIONS :: 'Self-Inflicted Wounds' Points to al-Qaeda's Defeat, by JAMES JAY CARAFANO, PHD

'Self-Inflicted Wounds' Points to al-Qaeda's Defeat

by JAMES JAY CARAFANO, PHD December 28, 2010
Brooklyn native Vinny Viola seldom strayed from the Big Apple until he left for West Point. After soldiering with the 101st Airborne, he returned home, graduated law school and went to work at the New York Merchantile Exchange.
 
In 2001, he became Nymex chairman. His resolute leadership following the 9/11 attacks helped the exchange recover from the turmoil.
 
But Vinny took the attack on his city personally. He wanted to help fight back. Though Vinny no longer wore a uniform, he turned to his alma mater, helping found and fund the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point.
 
The center combats terrorist threats to the U.S. through education, research and policy analyses. Center staff work with cadets, as well as the Pentagon and law enforcement agencies at all levels of government. They produce some of the world's best work on transnational terrorism.
 
 
The center's latest product, "Self-Inflicted Wounds: Debates and divisions with al Qa'ida and its periphery," (pdf document, downloadable, 251 pages in length) is a must read. No better "state of the enemy" assessment exists. It concludes that the Islamist terrorist movement has not weathered the global war well.
 
External pressures and internal divisions have taken their toll. "Self-Inflicted wounds" describes the jihadi movement, helmed by al Qaeda, as "one that lacks coherence and unity, despite its claims to the contrary."
 
Bin Laden's organization has suffered reversals on virtually every front and shows "clear signs of decline." The Taliban lost its state. Islamists who rebelled against the Saudi regime were driven into the remote deserts of Yemen. Israel still stands. And the U.S. remains a force to be reckoned with in the Middle East.
 
One of al Qaeda's greatest strategic errors, the report says, was its willingness to sanction the killing of Muslims by Muslims. Most of the innocents killed in the Long War were slaughtered by "holy" warriors.
 
Such attacks, the report concludes, "delegitimize the group in the eyes of the Umma--the global Islamic community of believers and al-Qa'ida's hoped-for constituency."
 
Yet, the war is far from over. The enemy is resilient. And bin Laden remains popular among the most extremist elements of the Islamist movement.
 
Yes, threats to U.S. interests are now largely fragmented. But that requires adapting strategies and tactics. There is no cookie-cutter solution, no silver-bullet answer to diminish the threat further.
 
Finishing the job in South Asia, eliminating any terrorist hope of securing sanctuary there, remains Job 1. The recent military assessment delivered to the White House contained both good and bad news, but it made one thing perfectly clear: More U.S. troops has made a big difference. Now, we must leverage military success into political success in both Afghanistan and Pakistan.
 
On the Afghan side, the U.S. must play a bigger role in convincing defeated and disaffected Taliban to disarm and reconcile with the Afghan people. On the other side of the border, American officials must convince Pakistan to move beyond trying to "manage" the Taliban. Islamabad must consider the tremendous costs of letting Taliban extremists regain influence in Afghanistan and become a force to reckon with in Pakistan.
 
Next, the U.S, must deal more nimbly with the "balkanization" of al Qaeda. Increasingly, extremists are going online to knit their activities together. Taking away their cyber assets must be priority.
 
"Self-Inflicted Wounds" recommends, "[e]rr on the side of disrupting, rather than monitoring, jihadi communications. Jihadis cannot work out their differences if they cannot communicate effectively."
 
"Self-Inflicted Wounds" has a lot more wisdom as well. Those who want to win this war should read it. closely.
 
FamilySecurityMatters.org Contributing Editor James Jay Carafano, Ph.D., is a leading expert in defense affairs, intelligence, military operations and strategy, and homeland security at the Heritage Foundation.
 

James Carafano is a leading expert in defense affairs, intelligence, military operations and strategy, and homeland security at The Heritage Foundation. He was an Assistant Professor at the U.S. Military Academy in West Point, N.Y., and fleet professor at the U.S. Naval War College. Carafano is the author of several military history books and studies. Carafano also is the coauthor of Winning the Long War: Lessons from the Cold War for Defeating Terrorism and Preserving Freedom; coauthor of the text book, Homeland Security published by McGraw-Hill; and the principal author of Emergency Responders: Drastically Underfunded, Dangerously Unprepared. He has testified before the U.S. Congress and has provided commentary for ABC, BBC, CBS, CNBC, CNN, C-SPAN, Fox News, MSNBC, NBC, SkyNews, PBS, National Public Radio, the History Channel, Voice of America, Al Jazeera, Telemundo, Al Arabiya and Australian, Austrian, Canadian, French, Greek, Hong Kong, Irish, Japanese, Portuguese, and Spanish television. His editorials have appeared in newspapers nationwide including The Baltimore Sun, The Boston Globe, The New York Post, Philadelphia Inquirer, USA Today and The Washington Times. Carafano is a member of the National Academy's Board on Army Science and Technology, the Department of the Army Historical Advisory Committee, and is a Senior Fellow at the George Washington University's Homeland Security Policy Institute.

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