HOME :: PUBLICATIONS :: The New Map of the Arab World, by AMIR TAHERI

The New Map of the Arab World

by AMIR TAHERI May 19, 2011
 
Last year, when the Arab Leaguedecided to hold its next summit in Baghdad, Arab leaders hoped they'd be patching up differences and fostering the illusion of unity by putting the Israel-Palestine issue atop the agenda.
 
"There is only one subject for the Arab world: Palestine," Syrian despot Bashar al-Assad asserted last October.
 
Less than a year later, it isn't clear whether anything called the "Arab world" still exists. And it is clear that Arab masses, from Oman to Mauritania, are only moderately interested in the Israel-Palestine conflict.
 
And the Arab League summit has been postponed until next March, with some doubt it will take place at all.
 
Once a fairly solid bloc of despotic regimes, the so-called Arab world is now a "broken crescent" -- split into several groups, each on a different trajectory.
 
First are countries that have toppled their despots and are on the way to democratization. This group's potential leader is Iraq, which is emerging as a pole of regional stability. Iraq's new status has been underlined with visits by a string of foreign dignitaries including the foreign ministers of Russia and France, plus trade delegations from Germany, India and China.
 
Joining this group are Egypt and Tunisia, which will soon follow Iraq's example by choosing their governments through free elections. Together, the trio accounts for almost half of all Arabs and could thus be in a strong position to help pro-democracy forces throughout the region.
 
This group has the advantage of being open to the future with the possibility that, having deposed their despots, other Arab countries knock on its door.
 
Second are the petro-monarchies, led by Saudi Arabia -- which is deploying immense resources to prevent change. Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait belong to this group.
 
Last week, the group (acting through the Gulf Cooperation Council) invited the other two Arab monarchies, Jordan and Morocco, to join -- ostensibly to "resist negative forces," in fact to fight the pro-democracy contagion. With those two, the group would account for almost a quarter of the Arabs.
 
But that's as far as it can go: There are no more Arab monarchies to enlarge the club -- and an agenda aimed at freezing things is unlikely to appeal to young and impatient populations.
 
In any case, Jordan and Morocco have already introduced elements of a constitutional system and don't share the strict traditionalism of Saudi Arabia or Qatar. Within the group, Kuwait is halfway toward democracy and couldn't turn back if tried.
 
The third group consists of Libya, Syria and Yemen, where despotic regimes are waging war against the people. Whatever the outcome of the current struggles, these regimes don't seem to have much of a future.
 
With change in Syria, Lebanon would be able to shake off Iran's domination and join the new Arab democracies. Change may also come to Algeria, with a new generation of the military allowing the development of a genuinely pluralist system.
 
Just three despotic Arab regimes -- in Sudan, Eritrea and Mauritania -- have managed to keep the lid on popular revolt, forming a fourth group for now. The key source of support for all three is China, which is pursuing a 19th century-style imperialist agenda in the "developing world."
 
These dramatic changes in the Arab world have happened without much input by any other major power -- including the United States.
 
America will soon need a policy, and not just another speech from President Obama, to deal with the realities of the "broken crescent." Two years ago, Obama's Cairo speech seemed to belong to another place. Now, it seems to also belong to another age.
 
FamilySecurityMatters.org Contributing Editor Amir Taheri writes for the NY Post and the Wall Street Journal. His latest book is The Persian Night: Iran Under the Khomeinist Revolution.
 

Amir Taheri writes for the New York Post. His latest book is The Persian Night: Iran Under the Khomeinist Revolution.


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